Full methodology disclosure. No black boxes.
We scan 12 oil & energy tickers every 60 seconds during market hours. A signal fires when the 14-day RSI drops below 33 — meaning the stock is statistically oversold and historically prone to bouncing. This is a mean-reversion strategy built on 3 years of backtested data.
Entry: at the close price when RSI crosses below 33. Stop loss: 4% below entry — protects against continued downside. Target: 7% above entry — based on average bounce magnitude from oversold conditions. Partial exit rule: consider taking half off at +3.5% to lock in gains.
Position size is not flat — it's proportional to edge. Higher win-rate tickers get larger positions (up to 25% of bankroll per signal). Lower win-rate tickers get smaller positions (10-14%). This mathematically maximizes long-term growth while controlling drawdown risk.
When 3 or more tickers simultaneously hit oversold RSI, this indicates a sector-wide event (oil price crash, macro shock). These cluster signals are marked HIGH CONVICTION and historically resolve faster and more decisively than single-ticker signals.
We track the 200-day moving average slope for each ticker. When the 200MA is flat (sideways market), RSI oversold signals have a 62.5% win rate. When the 200MA is rising, these signals have only 11% win rate and are penalized in scoring accordingly.
3 years of daily OHLCV data from Polygon.io. 12 tickers. RSI<33, 4% stop, 7% target. 72.9% win rate across top tickers. +386% cumulative return across all signals at flat sizing. +146% expected annual return at Kelly sizing.
OilSignal is an algorithmic signal service, not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading involves risk.